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The
2003 World Market Forecasts for Imported Computer Parts and Accessories
This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives
and export managers whose primary concern is the world market for computer parts
and accessories. With the globalization of this market, managers can no longer
be contented with a local view. Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date
statistics that appear several years after the fact. I have developed a methodology,
based on macroeconomic and trade models, to estimate the market for computer
parts and accessories for those firms serving the world via exports and foreign
direct investment. It does so for the current year based on a variety of key
historical indicators and econometric models.
In what follows, this report begins by summarizing the world exporter's market
for computer parts and accessories. The total level of exports on a worldwide
basis is based on a model that aggregates across over 150 key country markets
and projects these to the current year. From there, each country represents
a percent of the world market. This market is served from a number of competitive
countries of origin. Based on supply-side dynamics, market shares by country
of origin are then calculated across each country market. These shares lead
to a volume of import values for each country and are aggregated to regional
and world totals. In doing so, we are able to obtain maximum likelihood estimates
of both the value of each market and the shares that competitors (countries
serving that market) are likely to receive this year. From these figures, world
rankings are calculated to allow managers to prioritise markets. In this way,
all the figures provided in this report are forecasts that can be combined with
internal information for strategic planning purposes. Of the 150 countries considered,
if a country is not reported here it is therefore estimated to have only a negligible
level of trade in computer parts and accessories (i.e. their market shares are
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